 # Probability Models

Related Topics:
Common Core for Mathematics
Lesson Plans and Worksheets for all Grades

Examples, solutions, worksheets, videos, and lessons to help Grade 7 students learn how to develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

A. develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events.
For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected
.

B. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.
For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

Common Core: 7.SP.7

Suggested Learning Targets

• I can conduct experiments
• I can create a probability model based on possible outcomes.
• I can establish a probability context/experiment.
• I can determine the expected (theoretical) probability.
• I can perform the experiment and calculate actual results.
• I can recognize that sample space is a list of all possible outcome of the given experiment (Ex. Coin Experiment – sample space is {head, tail}, Dice Experiment – sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}.)
• I can compare actual results to expected results.
• I can develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a change process
• I can analyze a probability model and justify why it is uniform or explain the discrepancy if it is not.
Developing probability models (Common Core Standard 7.SP.7a)

Probability Models 1 (7.SP.7)
Creating a Probability Model
Example:
A cloth bag has 3 green marbles, 2 blue marbles, 4 yellow marbles, 6 red marbles, and 5 purple marbles.
If you draw 1 marble 10 times (replacing the marble each time), how many times would you expect to get a marble that is not green or blue?

Probability models examples
1. The FIFA World Cup has been held 19 times since 1930. Brazil has won the World Cup 5 times since it began.
Based on this data, estimate the probability that Brazil will win the next World Cup, to be held in Rio de Janeiro in 2014.
2. In his NFL career, Chad Pennington had 2471 attempted passes and 1632 completed passes.
Based on his record, estimate the probability to the nearest huundredth that Chad will complete a pass on his next attempt (assuming that he is still active). Introduction to Probability
This video introduces probability and determine the probability of basic events.
Example:
A bag contains 8 marbles numbered 1 to 8.
1. What is the probability os selecting a 2 from the bag?
2. What is the probability of selecting an odd number?
3. What is the probability of selecting a number greater than 6? Probability Models. 7 sp 7a
The Common Core State Standards (CCSS) videos are designed to support states, schools, and teachers in the implementation of the CCSS. Each video is an audiovisual resource that focuses on one or more specific standards and usually includes examples/illustrations geared to enhancing understanding. The intent of each content-focused video is to clarify the meaning of the individual standard rather than to be a guide on how to teach each standard although the examples can be adapted for instructional use.

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