Analyze Decisions using Probability
Videos and lessons with examples and solutions to help High School students
learn how to analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts
(e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
Expected value while fishing
You and your friend Jeremy are fishing in a pond that contains 10 trout and 10 sunfish. Each time one of you catches a fish, you release back into the water. Jeremy offers you the choice of two different bets.
Bet 1: If the next 3 fish that he catches are all sunfish, you will pay him $100, otherwise he will pay you $20.
Bet 2: If you catch at least 2 sunfish of the next 3 fish that you catch, he will pay you $50, otherwise you will pay him $25.
What is your expected value from Bet 1?
What is your expected value from Bet 2?
Comparing insurance with expected value
Paul has an option between a high deductible or a low deductible insurance plan.
If Paul chooses the low deductible plan, he will have to pay the first $1000 of any medical costs. The low deductible plan costs $8000 per year.
If Paul chooses the high deductible plan, he will have to pay the first $2500 of any medical costs. The low deductible plan costs $8700 per year.
You and your friend Jeremy are fishing in a pond that contains 10 trout and 10 sunfish. Each time one of you catches a fish, you release back into the water. Jeremy offers you the choice of two different bets.
Bet 1: If the next 3 fish that he catches are all sunfish, you will pay him $100, otherwise he will pay you $20.
Bet 2: If you catch at least 2 sunfish of the next 3 fish that you catch, he will pay you $50, otherwise you will pay him $25.
What is your expected value from Bet 1?
What is your expected value from Bet 2?
Paul has an option between a high deductible or a low deductible insurance plan.
If Paul chooses the low deductible plan, he will have to pay the first $1000 of any medical costs. The low deductible plan costs $8000 per year.
If Paul chooses the high deductible plan, he will have to pay the first $2500 of any medical costs. The low deductible plan costs $8700 per year.
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