# Probability Models

Videos and lessons to help Grade 7 students learn how to develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

A. develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events.
For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected
.

B. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.
For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

Common Core: 7.SP.7

Suggested Learning Targets

• I can conduct experiments
• I can create a probability model based on possible outcomes.
• I can establish a probability context/experiment.
• I can determine the expected (theoretical) probability.
• I can perform the experiment and calculate actual results.
• I can recognize that sample space is a list of all possible outcome of the given experiement (Ex. Coin Experiment – sample space is {head, tail}, Dice Experiment – sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}.)
• I can compare actual results to expected results.
• I can develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a change process
• I can analyze a probability model and justify why it is uniform or explain the discrepancy if it is not.

Related Topics:

Common Core for Mathematics

More Math Lessons for Grade 7

Developing probability models--Lesson 1 of 4 (Common Core Standard 7.SP.7a)
In this lesson you will learn how to analyze the probability of an event by assigning equal probability to all outcomes.

Developing probability models--Lesson 2 of 4 (Common Core Standard 7.SP.7a)
In this lesson you will learn to find the probability of events with multiple possibilities by combining their probabilities.

Developing probability models--Lesson 3 of 4 (Common Core Standard 7.SP.7b)
In this lesson you will learn the law of large numbers by comparing experimental results to the theoretical probability.

Developing probability models--Lesson 4 of 4 (Common Core Standard 7.SP.7b)
In this lesson you will learn how to explain discrepancies in results from a probability model by comparing experimental and theoretical probabilities.

Probability models examples.

Introduction to Probability
This video introduces probability and determine the probability of basic events.

Probability Models.

7 sp 7a
The Common Core State Standards (CCSS) videos are designed to support states, schools, and teachers in the implementation of the CCSS. Each video is an audiovisual resource that focuses on one or more specific standards and usually includes examples/illustrations geared to enhancing understanding. The intent of each content-focused video is to clarify the meaning of the individual standard rather than to be a guide on how to teach each standard although the examples can be adapted for instructional use.

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